MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1472

ACUS11 KWNS 152155
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152154
AZZ000-152300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1472
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0454 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 152154Z - 152300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR DOWNBURSTS. MOST OF THE GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE INITIATED ACROSS SRN AZ WITH AN INCREASING
TREND EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THROUGHOUT
THE REGION DEPICT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S...SUPPORTING A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE NEAR
1500 J/KG. MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...LCL HEIGHTS AROUND 6-7 KFT...AND
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE /700-500 MEAN RH APPROX 70 PERCENT/ WILL PROVIDE
AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF WET MICROBURST /EVIDENCED BY DCAPE
VALUES AOA 1000 J/KG/. MOST OF THESE MICROBURSTS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME. ADDITIONALLY...VERY MOIST AIR MASS /PWATS BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.8
INCH PER THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS/ WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCH/HOUR POSSIBLE.

..MOSIER/THOMPSON.. 07/15/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON 32091320 32951350 33721272 34151176 34071073 33390924
31380983 32091320

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