MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1477

ACUS11 KWNS 162215
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162214
UTZ000-AZZ000-NVZ000-162315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1477
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0514 PM CDT MON JUL 16 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL NV...SWRN UT...FAR NWRN AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 162214Z - 162315Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTM STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS E-CNTRL NV...SWRN UT AND FAR NWRN AZ. AS A
RESULT...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED THREAT OF SEVERE WIND/HAIL.
ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A
WW.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW A GRADUALLY INCREASING
STRENGTH IN MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CNTRL GREAT
BASIN. ICX VAD DEPICTS AN INCREASE IN 5-6 KM WINDS AS A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES THROUGH THE BASAL PORTION OF A MEAN
TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE WRN CONUS. AS A RESULT...LATEST MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 20-30 KTS...WHICH IS SUFFICIENT
FOR MODEST STORM ORGANIZATION. LOW INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AROUND 1000
J/KG/ WILL LIKELY LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION BUT
A FEW CELLS SHOULD BE ABLE TO BRIEFLY ORGANIZE AND POSE A WIND/HAIL
THREAT. THE WELL-MIXED SUB-CLOUD LAYER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SWRN
UT...WILL PRESUMABLY RESULT IN STRONG GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT. LIMITED COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS IS ANTICIPATED TO PRECLUDE
THE NEED FOR A WW.

..MOSIER/THOMPSON.. 07/16/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...VEF...LKN...

LAT...LON 36191472 37201552 38921536 40191424 40321302 38731128
35321080 36191472

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