MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1545

ACUS11 KWNS 222138
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222138
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-222315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1545
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0438 PM CDT SUN JUL 22 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST SD AND PORTIONS OF EXTREME SRN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 222138Z - 222315Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT INTO THIS EVENING. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
ARE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS BUT WIDESPREAD/ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE A WW IS NOT
EXPECTED AS STORMS CONTINUE E/SEWD.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH IS LOCATED FROM SRN ND INTO NW SD.
WHILE THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR CONTINUED ACTIVITY/FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO REMAIN RATHER UNORGANIZED. WHILE
THE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG INSTABILITY/WEAK
REMAINING CAP AND AMPLE MOISTURE...WEAK UPPER FORCING AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. THAT BEING SAID...ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUSTS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STRONGER CELLS THAT DEVELOP. A WW IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME BUT
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..LEITMAN/CARBIN.. 07/22/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON 45860026 45440094 45010101 44570027 44559874 44729747
45259680 45879668 46059850 46089948 45860026

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