MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1547

ACUS11 KWNS 222356
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222355
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-230130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1547
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0655 PM CDT SUN JUL 22 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN MN AND FAR SERN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 502...

VALID 222355Z - 230130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 502
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...AT LEAST AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS/SEVERE HAIL
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WW 502 THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. AN EXTENSION/NEW
WATCH DOWNSTREAM DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME BUT TRENDS WILL
BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...AT LEAST AN ISOLATED WIND/HAIL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS WW 502 FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. STORMS ACROSS W-CNTRL
MN HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON LIKELY DUE TO WEAK
CAPPING/WARM MIDLEVELS. STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE AND WEAKEN
AS THEY TRACK SEWD AWAY FROM STRONGER DEEP FORCING AND INTO A MORE
STRONGLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS CNTRL/SRN MN. A MORE ROBUST STORM
WHICH HAS TRACKED ACROSS MUCH OF NERN MN AND WAS APPROACHING DLH HAS
RECENTLY SHOWN SIGNS OF WEAKENING. THIS PROBABLY IS A RESULT OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED CAPPING FURTHER S BUT ALSO DUE TO SOME STABILIZATION
DUE TO THE E/NEWD ADVANCING LAKE BREEZE. FURTHER SW INTO SE ND...A
FEW STORMS HAVE SHOWN SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
BUT APPEAR TO RECENTLY SHOW A WEAKENING TREND DUE TO A LESS
FAVORABLE DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS. ASIDE FROM CAPPING
CONCERNS...SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND INSTABILITY REMAINS DOWNSTREAM WITH
STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SO AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. A SWD EXTENSION/NEW
SEVERE WATCH DOWNSTREAM OF WW 502 DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS
TIME BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

..LEITMAN/CARBIN.. 07/22/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...ABR...

LAT...LON 47699721 49069079 47339076 45929719 47699721

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