MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1548

ACUS11 KWNS 230114
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230113
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-230215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1548
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0813 PM CDT SUN JUL 22 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 503...

VALID 230113Z - 230215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 503
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. AN
ISOLATED THREAT MAY PERSIST WITH STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF WW 503 THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED BY
LOCAL WFO/S BEFORE 06Z EXPIRATION TIME AND NO DOWNSTREAM WATCH IS
EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...A GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND IN CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. HOWEVER AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST
WITH STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF WW 503 FOR ANOTHER HOUR
OR SO. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS IS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY CAPPED AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK AWAY FROM
BETTER FORCING. THEREFORE A DOWNSTREAM WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AND WW
503 WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED BEFORE 06Z EXPIRATION TIME.

..LEITMAN/CARBIN.. 07/23/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON 46100135 46029642 44889644 44950138 46100135

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