MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1614

ACUS11 KWNS 262206
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262206
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-262330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1614
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0506 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SE OH / CNTRL-NRN WV / SWRN PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 524...

VALID 262206Z - 262330Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 524
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR ENHANCED SWATHS OF WIND DAMAGE ARE BECOMING
INCREASINGLY PROBABLE OVER THE MID-UPPER OH VALLEY REGION DURING THE
NEXT 1-3 HRS. AN ISOLD QLCS TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP
TOO...ALTHOUGH THIS OVERALL RISK APPEARS LOW ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT A
TORNADO WATCH UPGRADE ATTM.

DISCUSSION...INTENSE QLCS EXTENDS FROM FAR ERN OH NEAR THE WV
PANHANDLE SWWD INTO SWRN OH. A CLUSTER OF CELLULAR STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED AND INTENSIFIED ACROSS FAR NRN WV WITH SOME OF THESE
STORMS /I.E. WEAK SUPERCELLS/ EXHIBITING INTERMITTENT ROTATION. THE
KPBZ VAD SHOWS STRONG 0-6 KM SHEAR /40 KTS/ WITH A NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY WIND PROFILE. GIVEN THE HOT/MOISTURE RICH
BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE /CHARACTERIZED BY LOW 90S TEMPS WITH LOWER
70S DEWPOINTS/ AHEAD OF THE STORMS...THIS WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED
INTENSIFICATION/SUSTENANCE AS THE QLCS MOVES EWD. THIS ENVIRONMENT
WILL ALSO FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF EMBEDDED MESOVORTICIES WITHIN THE
QLCS AS IT MATURES AND PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER-END WIND
DAMAGE WITHIN A BROAD SWATH OF ISOLD OCCURRENCES DMGG WINDS.
ALTHOUGH THE BACKGROUND TORNADO RISK IS LOW...THE LONGER LIVED
MESOVORTEX CIRCULATIONS MAY POSE AN ISOLD WEAK TORNADO RISK AS WELL.

..SMITH/MEAD.. 07/26/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...RLX...ILN...

LAT...LON 38618379 39548229 40598083 40467966 39937892 39517915
38308052 38258260 38618379

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