MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1627

ACUS11 KWNS 272350
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272350
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-280115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1627
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0650 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...EAST-CENTRAL NC/FAR SOUTHEAST VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 531...

VALID 272350Z - 280115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 531
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE TSTM WATCH 531 CONTINUES UNTIL 02Z...WITH CONTINUED
POTENTIAL THROUGH EARLY/MID EVENING FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE ALONG
WITH MAINLY SMALL HAIL.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TSTMS CONTINUE TO CLUSTER/SPREAD GENERALLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT/EXTREME SOUTHEAST VA VICINITY EARLY
THIS EVENING IN VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH AND /MORE SO/ COMPOSITE
OUTFLOW. THE AMBIENT UNPERTURBED AIRMASS TO THE EAST/SOUTH OF THE
ONGOING STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN REMAINS
RELATIVELY HOT/UNSTABLE...WITH AS MUCH AS 2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE.
WHILE STORMS MOTIONS WILL REMAIN SLOW/MODERATE OWING TO MODEST
WESTERLIES /MEAN FLOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 15-20 KT PER
RALEIGH WSR-88D/...CONTINUED STORM-SCALE/OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS INTO
WHAT REMAINS A HOT/MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO ACCOUNT FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL IN THE SHORT-TERM. WHILE THE
OVERALL STORM INTENSITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO WANE INTO MID-EVENING AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS...THE MOST FOCUSED/SUSTAINED STRONG/SEVERE
ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST THIS EVENING IN VICINITY OF OUTFLOW/SURFACE
TROUGH INTERFACE /AND JUST NORTH OF THE SOUTHWARD SAGGING OUTFLOW/
FROM NEAR THE RALEIGH-DURHAM AREA INTO ADJACENT PARTS OF
EAST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST NC.

..GUYER.. 07/27/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

LAT...LON 34707979 35488005 36407815 36527714 37057601 36687575
36197589 35457720 34737901 34707979

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