WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 497

WWUS20 KWNS 192049
SEL7
SPC WW 192049
MNZ000-NDZ000-200400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 497
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
350 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 350 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF
HALLOCK MINNESOTA TO 65 MILES SOUTH OF FARGO NORTH DAKOTA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 495...WW 496...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AS CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING ERODES
REMAINING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT IS
CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE VALUES OF 3000-4000+ J/KG AND 30-40 KT OF
DEEP...NWLY SHEAR WHICH WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL EVOLUTION. INITIAL
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO WITH THE
THREAT TRANSITIONING TO MORE DAMAGING WINDS AS ACTIVITY GROWS
UPSCALE INTO AN MCS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 33020.


...MEAD

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.