WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 501

WWUS20 KWNS 212319
SEL1
SPC WW 212319
LAZ000-TXZ000-220700-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 501
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
615 PM CDT SAT JUL 21 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN LOUISIANA
NORTHEAST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 615 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 110
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
COLLEGE STATION TEXAS TO 30 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF TYLER TEXAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 500...

DISCUSSION...ROBUST TSTM DEVELOPMENT WAS OCCURRING ALONG A
RESIDUAL/DECAYING FRONT SITUATED FROM THE DFW AREA WWD TO THE
ARKLATEX THIS EVENING. POOL OF STRONG INSTABILITY EXISTS AHEAD OF
THIS STORM DEVELOPMENT AND DEEP-LAYER MEAN WINDS FROM THE NORTH
SHOULD STEER STORMS SOUTH INTO THE HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIR. DOWNBURST
WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT GIVEN THE HOT CONDITIONS
AND HIGH DCAPE. SOME UPSCALE/MCS ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE IF COLD
POOLS CAN MERGE AND DEEPEN WITHIN A BELT OF 15KT MID LEVEL FLOW
ORIENTED FAVORABLY TO THE LINE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND STORM
DEVELOPMENT.
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM GULF COAST CONVECTION WAS SITUATED ACROSS
THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA FROM N OF HOU TO THE SABINE
RIVER. WHILE MORE STABLE POST-MCS AIRMASS EXISTS ACROSS SOME OF THIS
AREA...THE BOUNDARY COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING WHERE CONVERGENCE AND
LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED ON THE EDGE OF THE STRONGER INSTABILITY INLAND
FROM THE GULF COAST.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 36025.


...CARBIN

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