WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 486

WWUS20 KWNS 152231
SEL6
SPC WW 152231
NDZ000-160500-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 486
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
530 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM 530 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 75 MILES WEST OF MINOT NORTH
DAKOTA TO 25 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF DEVILS LAKE NORTH DAKOTA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPENING CONVECTION ALONG A N-S
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS WRN ND...AS WELL AS NEAR THE SURFACE LOW IN NW
ND. IT APPEARS THAT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION HAS WEAKENED ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY 23-00Z...WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO
MOVE GENERALLY EWD NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ARE MAXIMIZED NEAR THE SURFACE WARM
FRONT...WHERE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND CAPE FAVOR SUPERCELLS. THERE
WILL BE A RISK FOR A TORNADO OR TWO WITH DISCRETE STORMS INTERACTING
WITH THE WARM FRONT THIS EVENING...AND THE THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26025.


...THOMPSON

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