DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook Amend 1

ACUS01 KWNS 150112
SWODY1
SPC AC 150110

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0810 PM CDT TUE AUG 14 2012

VALID 150100Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND VICINITY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS INVOF THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF N
TX/SRN OK...

AMENDED FOR NRN MT/NWRN ND SEE TEXT

...RED RIVER VALLEY AREA OF N TX/SRN OK...
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INVOF THE SURFACE STATIONARY
FRONT...WITHIN ENVIRONMENT FEATURING MODEST INSTABILITY AND A
DEEP/RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. WHILE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WILL
REMAIN N OF THE WARM SECTOR...SHEAR/CAPE COMBINATION REMAINS
SUFFICIENT -- IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER -- TO
SUPPORT LOCALLY STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH MARGINAL HAIL.
THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SLOWLY DIMINISHING
WITH TIME AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS.

...MID-ATLANTIC AREA AND VICINITY...
MODEST SHEAR BUT MODERATE INSTABILITY PERSISTS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN
PA/VA AND VICINITY THIS EVENING...WHERE A LARGE CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES AHEAD OF A SLOWLY ADVANCING SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH. WHILE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH SLOWLY LATER THIS
EVENING IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIURNAL COOLING/STABILIZATION...THREAT
FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

...NRN MT/NWRN ND...
A STRONG COLD FRONT -- AHEAD OF A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH -- IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THIS
EVENING...AND THEN ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. DESPITE MEAGER
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STRONG FLOW ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE
UPPER SYSTEM AND STRENGTH OF FOCUSED ASCENT SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT NEAR ANY STRONGER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS.

..GOSS.. 08/15/2012

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