DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 110101
SWODY1
SPC AC 110059

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2012

VALID 110100Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST...MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND OHIO VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF SERN TX AND
CENTRAL/SWRN LA...

ADJUSTED THE TX/GULF COAST SLIGHT RISK TO ACCOUNT FOR AREAS
STABILIZED BY PRIOR CONVECTION...AND ALSO ADJUSTED LOW SVR PROBS A
BIT SWD OVER NWRN NEB. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS
OUTLOOK.

NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED OVER SERN LOWER
MI WITH A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT FROM THE CAROLINAS NWD INTO NEW
ENGLAND WITH NW/NLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS ERN TX AND
ADJACENT GULF COASTAL REGION. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES
INSTABILITY IS GREATEST /1500-LOCALLY 2500 J/KG/ IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT FROM NRN GA SWWD INTO SERN TX...WITH LESSER VALUES OF
INSTABILITY /500 - 1000 J/KG/ NWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC/SRN NEW
ENGLAND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT-TERM NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ERN U.S.
SLIGHT RISK AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH SHARPENS AND A
LOBE OF ASCENT IMPINGES ON THE AREA FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS
NWD...AND WEAKER PERTURBATIONS IN THE SLY FLOW ALOFT CLOSER TO THE
COAST LIFT NWD. SINCE INSTABILITY WILL BE SLOW TO MODIFY WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING DUE TO THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN
PLACE...PREFER TO LEAVE THE ERN U.S. SLIGHT RISK INTACT FOR NOW. THE
SVR THREAT WILL LIKELY BE LOCALIZED TO A FEW AREAS
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE NRN ROCKIES SHOULD RESULT IN A
CONTINUED INCREASE IN TSTMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

..BUNTING.. 08/11/2012

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.