DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 170101
SWODY1
SPC AC 170059

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

VALID 170100Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE OHIO
VALLEY WWD TO ERN OK...

LINE OF SVR TSTMS CONTINUES SEWD IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT WHICH IS
MOVING EWD THROUGH GREAT LAKES/MIDDLE MS VALLEY REGION. AIR MASS OVR
NERN KY IS CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER DEW POINTS/MODEST
INSTABILITY...WHILE FARTHER SOUTHWEST ALONG THE LINE...THE AIR MASS
IS CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE INSTABILITY BUT WEAKER FLOW ALOFT.
OVERALL...EXPECT THE HIGHEST SVR THREAT WITH THIS LINE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL/WRN KY WHERE BOWING SEGMENT MAY MOVE
SSEWD ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT WITH A CONTINUED SVR WIND
THREAT.

ACROSS ERN OK/SRN MO/NRN AR...SVR POTENTIAL WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE ISOLATED WITH TIME AS DIURNAL COOLING COMMENCES...HOWEVER THE
STRONGER TSTMS WILL POSE A SVR WIND/ISOLATED HAIL THREAT FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

AN ISOLATED SVR WIND/HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS GIVEN MOD-STG INSTABILITY AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT DUE TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS.
THE 00Z KJAN SOUNDING SHOWED SOME DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS WHICH MAY
INCREASE DOWNDRAFT STRENGTH WITH THE STRONGEST TSTMS.

..BUNTING.. 08/17/2012

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