ACUS01 KWNS 180105
SWODY1
SPC AC 180103
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0803 PM CDT FRI AUG 17 2012
VALID 180100Z - 181200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...NEW ENGLAND SWD TO SERN U.S....
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...ONE MOVING THROUGH MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS WITH
A SECOND OVER SRN AL. SUBTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS LIKELY
CONTRIBUTING TO MORE CONCENTRATED TSTM ACTIVITY IN ADVANCE OF THESE
FEATURES. DESPITE RELATIVELY MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...TSTMS
MAY CONTINUE TO POSE AN ISOLATED WIND THREAT FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS
BEFORE DIURNAL COOLING REDUCES INSTABILITY. ADJUSTED 5 PERCENT SVR
PROBS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
...ARKLATEX/NORTH TX REGION...
STG/ISOLATED SVR TSTMS WERE OCCURRING ALONG AND SOUTH OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND SURFACE TROUGH IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. A
DEEP/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER OVER N TX MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED STG
WIND GUSTS THIS EVENING...WHILE TSTMS OVER ARKLATEX ARE IN A MORE
MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER FLOW ALOFT.
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT SVR WIND AND HAIL IS POSSIBLE. REF MCD 1781 FOR
THE LATEST SHORT-TERM TRENDS IN THE ARKLATEX.
...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE TONIGHT...
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER THIS REGION LATER
TONIGHT AS A 25-30 KT LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS BENEATH MODERATELY STG
NW FLOW ALOFT. THE COMBINATION OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
40-50 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WARRANTS CONTINUING LOW SVR PROBS WITH
THIS OUTLOOK.
..BUNTING.. 08/18/2012
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