DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 150056
SWODY1
SPC AC 150054

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 PM CDT TUE AUG 14 2012

VALID 150100Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND VICINITY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS INVOF THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF N
TX/SRN OK...

...RED RIVER VALLEY AREA OF N TX/SRN OK...
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INVOF THE SURFACE STATIONARY
FRONT...WITHIN ENVIRONMENT FEATURING MODEST INSTABILITY AND A
DEEP/RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. WHILE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WILL
REMAIN N OF THE WARM SECTOR...SHEAR/CAPE COMBINATION REMAINS
SUFFICIENT -- IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER -- TO
SUPPORT LOCALLY STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH MARGINAL HAIL.
THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SLOWLY DIMINISHING
WITH TIME AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS.

...MID-ATLANTIC AREA AND VICINITY...
MODEST SHEAR BUT MODERATE INSTABILITY PERSISTS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN
PA/VA AND VICINITY THIS EVENING...WHERE A LARGE CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES AHEAD OF A SLOWLY ADVANCING SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH. WHILE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH SLOWLY LATER THIS
EVENING IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIURNAL COOLING/STABILIZATION...THREAT
FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

..GOSS.. 08/15/2012

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