DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 180553
SWODY2
SPC AC 180552

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST IN THE
CNTRL/ERN CONUS...CENTERED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE ARKLATEX.
RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES AND LARGE SPREAD EXIST IN GUIDANCE WITH
THE EVOLUTION OF AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IMPULSE CENTERED OVER THE
MIDWEST AT 12Z/SUN...ALONG WITH THE ATTENDANT LOW-LEVEL MASS
RESPONSE ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IN THE SOUTHEAST.

...GULF COAST TO THE SOUTHEAST...
THE AFOREMENTIONED ISSUES WITH GUIDANCE...NOTABLY THE 00Z NAM/GFS
DEPICTING A 60-90 M DIFFERENCE IN 850 MB HEIGHTS IN THE SRN
APPALACHIANS AT 20/06Z...BREED LOW CONFIDENCE IN IDENTIFYING A
CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK AREA ATTM. NEVERTHELESS...DOWNSTREAM OF THE
AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AND WITHIN THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF
AN UPPER-LEVEL JET CENTERED FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE
NORTHEAST...ASCENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS
ALONG THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LARGELY BE POOR...POCKETS OF STRONGER
DIURNAL HEATING AMIDST AT LEAST MODEST MID-LEVEL WLYS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SEMI-ORGANIZED CLUSTERS...PRIMARILY PRODUCING
LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS.

..GRAMS.. 08/18/2012

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