DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 270556
SWODY2
SPC AC 270555

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT MON AUG 27 2012

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN GULF
COAST STATES AND INTO GA...

...SYNOPSIS...
SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST THIS
PERIOD...AS THE LARGE TROUGH OFF THE PAC NW COAST SHIFTS SLOWLY
INLAND...AND THE DOWNSTREAM NERN U.S. TROUGH LIKEWISE MAKES SLOW EWD
PROGRESS. IN BETWEEN...A LARGE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FROM THE
SWRN U.S. ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS.

THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN TROPICAL SYSTEM
ISAAC...WHICH IS LIKELY TO BE MOVING NWWD ACROSS THE N CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO AS A HURRICANE. ALONG WITH TYPICAL TROPICAL SYSTEM
WEATHER THREATS...POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL EXIST WITHIN A LARGE
ENVELOPE ENCOMPASSING THE NERN QUADRANT OF THIS STORM.

...CENTRAL AND ERN GULF COASTAL STATES AND MUCH OF GA...
WHILE MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK OF THIS
STORM /PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE NHC/...THE
ONGOING FORECAST WILL BE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY...THOUGH THE OVERALL
FLAVOR OF THE FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME. STRONG/VEERING FLOW
THROUGH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WITHIN THE NERN QUADRANT OF THE STORM
WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING CELLS...WHICH -- AIDED BY THE
VERY MOIST/TROPICAL AIRMASS -- WILL SUPPORT TORNADO POTENTIAL WITHIN
SUSTAINED CELLULAR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITHIN THE BROADER
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. THE THREAT SHOULD SHIFT NWWD WITH
TIME...DIMINISHING FROM E TO W ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND SERN
ATLANTIC COAST LATER IN THE PERIOD...WHILE LIKEWISE INCREASING WITH
TIME TOWARD/ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION.

...ND EWD/SEWD INTO NRN SD/WRN MN...
AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ROUNDS THE CREST OF THE RIDGE AND CROSSES THE
NRN PLAINS REGION...RESPONSE OF THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW FIELD WILL
RESULT IN A SHEAR PROFILE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST LOOSELY ORGANIZED
STORMS. HOWEVER...MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT THE MIXED LAYER MAY
REMAIN TOO DRY -- AND THUS CAPPED -- TO FOSTER ANY MORE THAN A STORM
OR TWO AT BEST. STILL...GIVEN THE INCREASING SHEAR AND HINTS FOR
ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE WITHIN BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE...WILL INTRODUCE A LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING WIND/HAIL ACROSS THIS AREA.

..GOSS.. 08/27/2012

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