DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 240708
SWODY3
SPC AC 240706

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0206 AM CDT FRI AUG 24 2012

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
THE STRONGER WESTERLIES OVER CANADA AND THE NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL
CONUS SHOULD AMPLIFY TO A DEGREE ON SUNDAY...WITH AN EASTWARD-MOVING
UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO...WHILE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
PIVOTS NEAR THE COASTAL PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE LIKELY APPROACH OF
ISAAC WILL ALSO BE A CONSIDERABLE FACTOR FOR PORTIONS OF FL.

...FL...
REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE LATEST FORECAST
TRACK/INTENSITY INFORMATION FOR TROPICAL STORM ISAAC. BASED ON THE
LATEST NHC FORECASTS...A STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL LIKELY
GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE FL KEYS AND AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FL PENINSULA ON SUNDAY AS ISAAC APPROACHES AND POTENTIALLY
BEGINS TO INTENSIFY. WHILE SPECIFIC DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT
THE DAY 3 JUNCTURE...AT LEAST SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD EXIST
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH FL IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PERIPHERAL BANDS
OF ISAAC.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARKS TO MIDDLE MS VALLEY/MIDWEST...
RESIDUAL EARLY DAY COVER/PRECIPITATION ARE LIKELY TO BE FACTORS ON
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT
LAKES...AND NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH AND/OR EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE OZARKS/SOUTHERN PLAINS. WHILE TSTMS MAY REDEVELOP/INTENSIFY INTO
THE AFTERNOON...OVERALL FORCING FOR ASCENT/VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE
MEAGER...WITH THE DEGREE OF DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION OTHERWISE
QUESTIONABLE. WHILE LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE IS CONCEIVABLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHERE SOMEWHAT STRONGER DESTABILIZATION
OCCURS...FORECAST/GUIDANCE UNCERTAINTY AT THE DAY 3 JUNCTURE AND THE
LIKELY MARGINAL/SPORADIC NATURE OF THE OVERALL THREAT PRECLUDE AN
INTRODUCTION OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.

..GUYER.. 08/24/2012

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