DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 140855
SWOD48
SPC AC 140855

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 AM CDT TUE AUG 14 2012

VALID 171200Z - 221200Z

...DISCUSSION...
00Z ECMWF/GEFS/UKMET ARE IN GENERAL CONSENSUS REGARDING THE
PERSISTENCE OF AN AMPLIFIED LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN STATES...A LONGWAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO 30 PERCENT EQUIVALENT SEVERE
AREAS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST GIVEN A COMBINATION OF MODEST
PREDICTABILITY /ESPECIALLY DAY 6 AND BEYOND/ AND MARGINAL /OR AT
LEAST UNCERTAIN/ MAGNITUDE.

FOR DAY 4/FRIDAY...AT LEAST SOME SEVERE RISK WILL LIKELY EXIST
ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...POTENTIALLY INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/TN VALLEY.
AIDED BY MODERATELY STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ATTENDANT TO THE
UPPER TROUGH...SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR/BUOYANCY MAY COINCIDE AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT FOR SOME ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED REGIONS.

THEREAFTER...AT LEAST SPORADIC/ISOLATED SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL MAY
EXIST THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK /DAYS 5-7/ ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS/ARKLATEX TO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES.

..GUYER.. 08/14/2012

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