ACUS48 KWNS 280851
SWOD48
SPC AC 280851
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 AM CDT TUE AUG 28 2012
VALID 311200Z - 051200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 6 /SUN
9-2/...WITH CONTINUED WEAKENING/DISSIPATION OF TROPICAL SYSTEM ISAAC
IN THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS...AND WEAKENING OF A WRN U.S. TROUGH AS
IT SHIFTS INLAND AND ENCOUNTERS THE PERSISTENT DOWNSTREAM RIDGING.
GIVEN THE WEAKENING OF ISAAC AND DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE-SCALE
PATTERN...THE OVERALL PATTERN DOES NOT ATTM APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR A
SUBSTANTIAL/WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.
SOME POTENTIAL IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION DAY 4
/FRI 8-31/...AND SHIFTING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS DAY 5 /SAT 9-1/...AS
THE DEAMPLIFYING TROUGH CROSSES THE N CENTRAL CONUS...BUT ATTM IT
APPEARS THAT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE -- AND THUS INSTABILITY -- MAY BE
INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT INCLUSION OF A 30% EQUIVALENT RISK AREA.
..GOSS.. 08/28/2012
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