Friday, August 10, 2012

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1739

ACUS11 KWNS 102332
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102331
PAZ000-NJZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-110130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1739
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0631 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...W CNTRL VA INTO MD AND SERN PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 102331Z - 110130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STORMS MAY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING...WITH LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. A WW IS NOT EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...A FEW WIDELY SPACED STORMS WERE ONGOING FROM SWRN VA
INTO W CNTRL VA AND SERN PA...IN A ZONE OF MOIST SWLY FLOW AND NEAR
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. HEATING WAS MINIMAL
EARLIER TODAY...AND WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 68-72 F RANGE IN
PLACE...THE AIR MASS SHOULD BE SLOW TO COOL. THUS...CIN SHOULD BE
NEGLIGIBLE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF
ISOLATED STORMS. LOW TO MIDLEVEL FLOW/SHEAR IS MARGINAL AND
HODOGRAPHS ARE STRAIGHT...WHICH IS RESULTING IN LAX STORM STRUCTURE.
BUT A FEW CELLS MAY PERSIST OVER A SEVERAL COUNTY SWATH WITH
PRECIPITATION LOADING BEING THE DRIVING FACTOR FOR WIND GUSTS.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY...BUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND
GUST MAY OCCUR THIS EVENING.

..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 08/10/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RAH...RNK...

LAT...LON 36267975 36138027 36388099 36858097 37657986 39027843
40197737 40457592 40257520 39537510 38257646 37187768
36687843 36267975

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