MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1748

ACUS11 KWNS 130327
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130326
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-130500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1748
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1026 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK THROUGH NERN TX AND WRN THROUGH CNTRL AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 574...

VALID 130326Z - 130500Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 574
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL
PERSIST MAINLY OVER NERN TX AND ECNTRL AND NERN OK NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. OTHER STORMS ARE INCREASING OVER WCNTRL AND NWRN ARKANSAS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD ALSO BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL...BUT ANY WW ISSUANCE IN ARKANSAS WILL
ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS EVENING IN SERN
OK PRODUCED AN EXPANSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. STORMS ARE FORWARD
PROPAGATING SEWD THROUGH NERN TX ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND MAY
CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. FARTHER NORTH ACROSS ECNTRL OK...OTHER STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG NRN EXTENSION OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. ACTIVITY REMAINS
EMBEDDED WITHIN 30-35 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR THAT WILL SUPPORT UPDRAFT
ROTATION AND A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

OTHER STORMS ARE INCREASING OVER WRN ARKANSAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AUGMENTED BY DEVELOPING SWLY LLJ. MODIFIED POINT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY ELEVATED AND
ROOTED BETWEEN 800 AND 750 MB. ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING WITHIN
MODERATE MUCAPE...BUT WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR AOB 30 KT. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MIGHT ALSO BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED HAIL AND
LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

..DIAL.. 08/13/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...

LAT...LON 34819496 35069575 35699544 36069445 34759288 34149393
32809444 32759522 33009595 33329595 33419480 34819496

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