MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1788

ACUS11 KWNS 190004
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190003
TXZ000-190100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1788
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0703 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NWRN/WRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 584...

VALID 190003Z - 190100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 584
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE SVR THREAT CONTINUES DECREASING ACROSS REMAINING VALID
PARTS OF WW584...WHICH SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BY THE SCHEDULED
EXPIRATION TIME OF 02Z. ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE IS NOT NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...CAPPI DATA AT 9 KM INDICATE AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND
OF ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE WW AREA AS
OUTFLOW CONTINUES UNDERCUTTING CONVECTION AMIDST ONLY MODEST DEEP
SHEAR. NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION SHOULD REINFORCE THE WEAKENING TREND.
WHILE INTENSE STORMS DEVELOPING S/SW OF THE AMARILLO AREA MAY
TRANSITION SWD ACROSS WRN PARTS OF THE WW AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE FARTHER SOUTH ALONG A WWD-SURGING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY OVER THE TX SOUTH PLAINS...ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOME
INCREASINGLY POOR.

..COHEN.. 08/19/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON 32479784 32530045 33130165 33960233 34510241 34850200
34730126 33780082 33320002 33129853 33179751 32479784

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