ACUS11 KWNS 310914
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310914
LAZ000-TXZ000-311045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1843
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0414 AM CDT FRI AUG 31 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...LA AND PARTS OF SRN AR...WRN MS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 310914Z - 311045Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...VIGOROUS ONGOING STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST
THROUGH CENTRAL LOUISIANA MAY PERSIST ANOTHER COUPLE OF
HOURS...BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH BY 11-13Z. SEVERE
WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW...BUT MAY NOT BE
COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE.
DISCUSSION...A RELATIVELY DEEP LAYER...NEAR SURFACE CONFLUENCE ZONE
TO THE SOUTH OF THE REMNANTS OF ISAAC HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR THE
MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SUPPORTED BY INFLOW OF MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY
MID/UPPER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS...WHICH MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO AT
LEAST MODEST CAPE. BENEATH THE MID/UPPER DRY SLOT TO THE SOUTH OF
THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF ISAAC...NOW OVER WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES HAVE BEEN CONDUCIVE TO
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH OCCASIONALLY FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES...IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...
LIKELY AT RATES WELL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR. AS THE SURFACE
LOW CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ISAAC CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
DEVELOP NORTHWARD TOWARD THE FAYETTEVILLE/ HARRISON AREA...AND
GRADUALLY WEAKEN...THROUGH 11-13Z...WEAKENING WIND FIELDS AND
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL LOUISIANA MAY
RESULT IN DIMINISHING CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
..KERR/THOMPSON.. 08/31/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...
LAT...LON 30749372 31569290 32129213 31829145 30879200 30029314
30099392 30479393 30749372
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