MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1844

ACUS11 KWNS 311827
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311826
ILZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-311930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1844
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0126 PM CDT FRI AUG 31 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AR...WRN TN...ERN MO...SWRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 311826Z - 311930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MIDWEST CENTERED ALONG THE MS RIVER REGION OF MO/IL.

DISCUSSION...REMNANTS OF ISAAC ARE LIFTING NNEWD ACROSS SWRN MO WITH
THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION NEAR THE LAWRENCE/BARRY/STONE COUNTY
INTERSECTION. ONE PERSISTENT BAND OF STRONG CONVECTION IS
TRANSLATING ACROSS NERN AR INTO SERN MO WITHIN THE ERN SEMICIRCLE OF
ISAAC ALONG WRN FRINGE OF STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. LATEST OA
FIELDS SUGGEST A CORRIDOR OF SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7 C/KM
HAVE DEVELOPED FROM WRN TN...NWD INTO CNTRL IL. SFC TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THIS REGION WITH READINGS WELL INTO
THE MID-UPPER 80S. THERE IS INCREASING CONCERN THAT THIS STEEPER
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROVE FAVORABLE FOR ROBUST LOW-TOPPED
SUPERCELLS WITHIN A FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR ROTATING STORMS.
GIVEN THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION
CONDITIONS WARRANT A TORNADO WATCH.

..DARROW/CORFIDI.. 08/31/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON 35819090 37419111 39319130 39648962 37598866 35748926
35819090

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