DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 190555
SWODY1
SPC AC 190553

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 AM CDT WED SEP 19 2012

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO REMAIN OVER THE ERN U.S.
THIS PERIOD...AS A SMALLER-SCALE TROUGH SHIFTS QUICKLY NEWD OUT OF
THE NERN U.S. TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND A SECOND DIGS SEWD
ACROSS THE N CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE...A LARGE RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WRN
U.S./ROCKIES.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL NERN U.S.
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BE SHIFTING INTO THE ERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FL WHERE
THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY WILL LINGER. FARTHER W...A
SECOND FRONT -- ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIGGING UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
-- WILL SHIFT SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH TIME...AND SHOULD
EXTEND FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD INTO OK/N TX BY
20/12Z.

WITH THE INITIAL SURFACE COLD FRONT LARGELY OFFSHORE BY THE START OF
THE PERIOD...THUNDER THREAT WILL BE CONFINED ONLY TO COASTAL NEW
ENGLAND...THE NC OUTER BANKS...AND THE FL PENINSULA. SEVERE THREAT
IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FARTHER W...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO FORECAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AHEAD OF THE
SECOND STORM SYSTEM -- BUT HERE ALSO...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.

..GOSS/SMITH.. 09/19/2012

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