Friday, September 14, 2012

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 141215
SWODY1
SPC AC 141213

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0713 AM CDT FRI SEP 14 2012

VALID 141300Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY PROGRESS EWD TOWARD THE LOWER LAKES BY
AFTERNOON AND INTO NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. AS DEVELOPING
SFC LOW NEAR NRN NY/SRN QUEBEC TRACKS SLOWLY NEWD...EWD ADVANCING
COLD FRONT FROM WRN NY/PA /EXTENDING SWWD INTO ERN OK/ WILL FOCUS
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
TOWARD THE LOWER LAKES/NEW ENGLAND. A SEPARATE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS ERN OK SWD TO THE GULF COAST.

...NY ADIRONDACKS/NRN VT...
MODEST SFC HEATING THROUGH THIN/BROKEN CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN
WEAK INSTABILITY/DESTABILIZATION BY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD AS FORCING FOR
ASCENT INCREASES IN REGION OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR. POOR LAPSE
RATES AND SLIGHTLY WARMING TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 700-500 MB SHOULD
LIMIT SMALL HAIL POTENTIAL BUT A STRONG WIND REPORT OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE FROM BROKEN...LOW-TOPPED LINE SEGMENTS.

..LEITMAN/HART.. 09/14/2012

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