DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 131907
SWODY1
SPC AC 131905

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0205 PM CDT THU SEP 13 2012

VALID 132000Z - 141200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

A COLD FRONT REINFORCED BY OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT E AND SEWD
FROM ERN OK INTO CNTRL TX. A VERY MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY...WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING. WITH
LITTLE WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...AS WELL AS POOR LAPSE
RATES...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN UNLIKELY.

..JEWELL.. 09/13/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT THU SEP 13 2012/

...SYNOPSIS...
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN A NE/SW-ORIENTED FRONTAL
ZONE OVER CNTRL/SRN TX...WHERE 1.6-1.9-INCH PW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
GUSTY-WIND THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...SPATIAL DISPLACEMENT FROM ANY SUBSTANTIAL DEEP SHEAR...AND
THE UNDERCUTTING NATURE OF THE SFC BOUNDARY PRECLUDE 5-PERCENT SVR
WIND PROBABILITIES. ELSEWHERE...RELATIVELY SPARSE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE /1/ NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC FRONT THAT
EXTENDS NEWD INTO THE MIDWEST AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ACROSS PARTS
OF THE SE STATES WITHIN THE RELATIVELY HIGH PW PLUME THROUGH
TONIGHT.../2/ AROUND RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SW...AND
/3/ IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COMPACT VORT MAX CROSSING LAKE SUPERIOR
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

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