DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 101614
SWODY1
SPC AC 101612

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1112 AM CDT MON SEP 10 2012

VALID 101630Z - 111200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CNTRL GREAT BASIN AND THE SOUTHWEST...
A MID-LEVEL LOW MEANDERING OVER NRN BAJA CA AND THE ADJACENT GULF OF
CA WILL MOVE LITTLE TODAY BEFORE BEING ADVECTED NEWD TONIGHT OWING
TO HEIGHT FALLS DOWNSTREAM FROM AN IMPULSE APPROACHING THE COAST OF
CA. MINOR IMPULSES PIVOTING AROUND THE NRN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW
AMIDST 1.5-2-INCH PW AND TERRAIN-DRIVEN CIRCULATIONS WILL FOSTER
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST...AREAS OF INSOLATION SHOULD STEEPEN LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES TO SUPPORT STRONG/LOCALLY SVR CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS AMIDST
WEAK DEEP SHEAR. FARTHER NORTH INTO THE CNTRL GREAT BASIN...MODESTLY
ENHANCED MID/HIGH-LEVEL FLOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SRN FRINGES OF
THE WLYS AMIDST STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD AID IN THE
THREAT FOR STRONG/LOCALLY SVR CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...MORE
LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH NWD DISPLACEMENT FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW SHOULD LIMIT SFC-BASED BUOYANCY.

...CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA...
AN INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE COLD FRONT WILL SAG SWD THROUGH THE FL
PENINSULA WHILE A RIBBON OF 1.8-2.2-INCH PW OVERLAYS THE FRONTAL
ZONE. AREAS OF STRONG PRE-FRONTAL SFC HEATING SHOULD BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S TO PERHAPS AROUND 90 DEGREES OVER
THE EAST COAST...LOWER FARTHER WEST WHERE CONVECTION IS ONGOING.
MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS SUGGEST MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON WHERE CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING IS NOT ABUNDANT.
AND...WITH THE HIGH PW SUPPORTING WATER-LOADING PROCESSES...
EWD-MOVING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS. HOWEVER...WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WEAK VERTICAL
SHEAR...AND THE LACK OF AN APPRECIABLE EAST-COAST SEA BREEZE
PRECLUDE THE INTRODUCTION OF ANY PROBABILITIES.

..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 09/10/2012

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.