DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 091955
SWODY1
SPC AC 091953

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 PM CDT SUN SEP 09 2012

VALID 092000Z - 101200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

ONLY MINOR CHANGE THIS OTLK WAS TO MOVE GENL TSTM LINE NORTH IN FL
TO ACCOUNT FOR CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHING LOW LEVEL ZONE OF
CONFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OFF THE ERN
SEABOARD. ELSEWHERE...GENL TSTM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

..CARBIN.. 09/09/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT SUN SEP 09 2012/

...SYNOPSIS...
AN EXTENSIVE SFC COLD FRONT THAT ACCOMPANIES AN ERN CONUS DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH HAS CLEARED MUCH OF THE EAST AND GULF COASTS. EXCEPTIONS
INCLUDE DEEP SOUTH TX AND THE FL PENINSULA...WHERE SUFFICIENT
BUOYANCY WILL EXIST WITHIN THE MOIST PLUME LEADING THE TROUGH AXIS
FOR SPORADIC THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...WITH ANY SUBSTANTIAL
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS/DEEP SHEAR DISPLACED WELL NORTH OF ANY
INLAND/ADJACENT-COASTAL-WATERS BUOYANCY...SVR STORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED. ISOLATED NON-SVR STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SECONDARY VORT MAX CROSSING
PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

ELSEWHERE...A PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE/BUOYANCY EXTENDING FROM A
CLOSED LOW NEAR NRN BAJA CA NWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES WILL SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS. OVER THE NRN EXTENT OF THIS
PLUME...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE AIDED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WHILE MODERATE
MID-LEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANYING THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND DEEP
INVERTED-VEE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MAY SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS OVER THE NRN ROCKIES...BUOYANCY SHOULD BE VERY
MEAGER OWING TO LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PER 12Z RAOBS.

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