DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 010600
SWODY2
SPC AC 010559

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT SAT SEP 01 2012

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MN AND PORTIONS OF
NEARBY STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...
DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST THIS
PERIOD...AS A WRN TROUGH IMPINGES UPON AND FLATTENS THE CENTRAL U.S.
RIDGE. THIS TROUGH -- SLOWLY CROSSING THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE U.S. -- WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE
COLD FRONT WHICH IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND REACH THE
UPPER MS VALLEY REGION LATE.

ELSEWHERE...REMNANTS OF ISAAC SHOULD DRIFT EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE LOWER
OH AND TN VALLEY REGIONS...WHILE A FAST-MOVING MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH CROSSES NEW ENGLAND DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.

WHILE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THE
MID-SOUTH REGION EWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE COAST...AND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN ROCKIES...THE ONLY AREA OF APPRECIABLE
SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE PORTIONS OF THE N CENTRAL CONUS.

...MN AND PORTIONS OF ADJACENT STATES...
MODEST AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING UPPER SYSTEM
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...FROM THE
MN/CANADA BORDER SSWWD TOWARD THE MID MO VALLEY REGION. WHILE FLOW
FROM THE SD/NEB AND MN/IA BORDERS SWD WILL REMAIN WEAK...A BELT OF
30 TO 40 KT WSWLYS AT MID LEVELS FARTHER N ACROSS MN ATOP SLY
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL YIELD SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS IN THIS AREA. THUS...IT APPEARS THAT AN
UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK IS JUSTIFIED THIS FORECAST...WITH HAIL AND
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE STORMS DIURNALLY WEAKEN.

..GOSS.. 09/01/2012

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