DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 130522
SWODY2
SPC AC 130521

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 AM CDT THU SEP 13 2012

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

COMPACT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...OH VALLEY AND INTO THE NERN U.S. FRIDAY. A SRN STREAM UPPER
LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK FLOW ALOFT OVER AZ WILL DRIFT SLOWLY INTO
NEW MEXICO BY EARLY FRIDAY...AND SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL
ROTATE THROUGH THIS FEATURE. UPPER LOW CIRCULATION NOW OVER THE SERN
STATES IS FORECAST TO SHEAR EWD AS IT INTERACTS WITH SRN FRINGE OF
WLYS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AT
THE SFC A COLD FRONT...LIKELY EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
SWWD INTO SWRN TX EARLY FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NERN STATES
AND MID ATLANTIC...WHILE TRAILING PORTION MAY STALL OVER S TX.

...SERN TX...

WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AREAS OF CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR ACROSS SE TX.
WHERE DIABATIC WARMING DOES OCCUR MLCAPE FROM 1000-1500 J/KG MAY
DEVELOP GIVEN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE. THE MOIST AND
WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS IN WARM
SECTOR...BUT THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE NM UPPER LOW WILL ALSO
PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF POST FRONTAL CONVECTION. THOUGH ISOLATED
STRONG GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE WARM SECTOR STORMS...WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR AND A MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SUGGEST ANY
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOW.

...OH VALLEY THROUGH NERN STATES...

BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED ALONG
NERN EXTENSION OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...BANDS OF MOSTLY LOW
TOPPED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY MIGHT BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING STRIKES...BUT
OVERALL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN SPARSE DUE TO EXPECTED
MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.

..DIAL.. 09/13/2012

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