DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 010732
SWODY3
SPC AC 010730

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT SAT SEP 01 2012

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NEB/SD...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW FIELD ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THIS PERIOD...AS AN UPPER
TROUGH ADVANCES SLOWLY ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE SUPPRESSING THE
CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE.

AT THE SURFACE...A FAIRLY NONDESCRIPT PATTERN IS FORECAST...WITH A
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE PLAINS
FOCUSING ACTIVE CONVECTION.

...CENTRAL AND ERN NEB/S CENTRAL AND SERN SD...
AS THE COLD FRONT WASHES OUT/RETURNS NWD ACROSS THE KS/NEB
REGION...DIURNAL HEATING WILL AID IN MARGINAL TO MODERATE AFTERNOON
DESTABILIZATION. AS A VORT MAX SHIFTS OUT OF WY INTO THIS
REGION...INCREASING ASCENT SHOULD SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
THE DESTABILIZING AIRMASS.

AS THE VORT MAX EJECTS...ACCOMPANYING/COMPACT 30 TO 35 KT WLY JET
STREAK AT MID LEVELS WILL OVERSPREAD ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
SELYS...YIELDING SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. WHILE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL IS
ALSO EVIDENT -- WARRANTING INTRODUCTION OF SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THIS
REGION. DEVELOPING SLY LOW-LEVEL JET AFTER DARK MAY SUPPORT A
CONTINUATION OF THE CONVECTION...WITH LINGERING SEVERE THREAT
SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE EVENING.

...PARTS OF UPPER MI AND ERN WI...
AS THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT CROSSES UPPER MI/WI DURING THE DAY...A
HEATING BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
RESULT IN A DESTABILIZING AFTERNOON AIRMASS. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INVOF THE FRONT...MOST LIKELY
ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER MI AND ERN WI. WITH 30 TO 35 KT MID-LEVEL WLYS
AND GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW FIELD WITH HEIGHT...POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS IS EVIDENT...AND POSSIBLY MARGINAL HAIL.
THREAT SHOULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING...UNTIL BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING
YIELDS A DECREASE IN WIND POTENTIAL.

..GOSS.. 09/01/2012

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