DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 100717
SWODY3
SPC AC 100716

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0216 AM CDT MON SEP 10 2012

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES ROTATING THROUGH THIS FEATURE
INCLUDING ONE THAT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH ONTARIO AND A COMPACT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO DROP SEWD INTO ERN MT AND ND
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES WITH TRAILING PORTIONS CONTINUING ACROSS THE CNTRL
PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN ANCHORED
OVER THE ERN STATES...WHILE CUTOFF LOW EMBEDDED IN WEAK FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE SWRN U.S. MAY SHIFT A LITTLE FARTHER EAST.

...SWRN STATES THROUGH CNTRL PLAINS...

PRIMARY ZONE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL PERSIST WITHIN PLUME
OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SWRN STATES AND CNTRL ROCKIES INTO
THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES. ELY
LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES OVER THE GULF ASSOCIATED WITH ERN U.S. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR GULF MOISTURE RETURN AND
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEAK IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS WELL
AS OVER THE SWRN STATES. WHERE SUFFICIENT DIABATIC HEATING
OCCURS...STORMS COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS PROMOTED BY
INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS MAINLY OVER THE SWRN STATES AND CNTRL
ROCKIES...BUT COVERAGE OF ANY SEVERE GUSTS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SPARSE.

..DIAL.. 09/10/2012

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