ACUS48 KWNS 100848
SWOD48
SPC AC 100847
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0347 AM CDT MON SEP 10 2012
VALID 131200Z - 181200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT INTO DAY 4 DROPPING A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SEWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY REGION...BUT
BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY DAY 5. GFS BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS
FEATURE THAN THE ECMWF WHICH CUTS OF THE LOW AS IT DEVELOPS FARTHER
SWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...WHILE THE GFS ADVANCES IT THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. IN EITHER CASE...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS DOES NOT
APPEAR ROBUST GIVEN EXPECTED ELY FLOW OVER THE GULF PROMOTED BY THE
PERSISTENT SERN U.S. HIGH PRESSURE AREA.
BEYOND DAY 5 PREDICTABILITY IS LOW...DUE TO INCREASING SPREAD AMONG
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS
PROBABLE THAT PRIMARY BELT OF WLYS WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
RICHER GULF MOISTURE WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGHER
COVERAGE SEVERE EVENT RELATIVELY LOW.
..DIAL.. 09/10/2012
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