DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 130835
SWOD48
SPC AC 130834

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0334 AM CDT THU SEP 13 2012

VALID 161200Z - 211200Z

...DISCUSSION...
SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN LOW THROUGH DAY 4 AS RICHER BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF BELT OF STRONGER WLYS OVER THE NRN
TIER STATES.

DAY 5-6...GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL
SOLUTIONS IS THAT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE ERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY. DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS SUCH AS DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION
AND TIMING PERSIST. IT STILL APPEARS THAT PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF
AIR WILL BEGIN RETURNING NWD INTO THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR OVER
THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS MONDAY /DAY 5/. AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AMPLIFYING
TROUGH AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT...WITH THREAT CONTINUING INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC AND NERN STATES DAY 6. AT THIS TIME TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER TROUGH
AND EXTENT OF CLOUDS/DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL IN WARM SECTORS...BUT
THESE AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE RISK
IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

..DIAL.. 09/13/2012

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