ACUS48 KWNS 180845
SWOD48
SPC AC 180844
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0344 AM CDT TUE SEP 18 2012
VALID 211200Z - 261200Z
...DISCUSSION...
LARGE-SCALE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN CYCLONIC FLOW OVER
MUCH OF CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS...GREAT LAKES...MS/OH VALLEY REGIONS AND
APPALACHIANS/NERN CONUS THROUGH PERIOD. OVER MOST OF SRN/ERN
CONUS...PRIOR FROPA AND PRESENCE OF POST-FRONTAL/LOW-LEVEL RIDGING
SHOULD KEEP HIGH BOUNDARY-LAYER THETAE OVER ATLC AND SRN/ERN
GULF...DISPLACED FROM MOST FAVORABLE MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS. WEAK
CAPE ASSOCIATED WITH MRGL MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT A FEW CONVECTIVE
EVENTS OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS STATES. HOWEVER...IMPORTANT
SHORTWAVE DETAILS BECOME VERY UNCERTAIN BEYOND
DAY-5/22ND-23RD...WHEN PROGS SHOW GREATER SPREAD IN
SUBSYNOPTIC-SCALE GEOMETRY OF ERN CONUS TROUGHING. GIVEN THAT...AND
LIKELY LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL RETURN-FLOW MOISTURE...SVR RISK APPEARS
TO BE TOO LOW FOR 30% AREA ANY GIVEN DAY.
..EDWARDS.. 09/18/2012
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