ACUS48 KWNS 300829
SWOD48
SPC AC 300829
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0329 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
VALID 031200Z - 081200Z
...DISCUSSION...
LATEST GFS/ECMWF ARE CONSISTENT REGARDING THE EVENTUAL EJECTION OF
LOWER MS TROUGH INTO THE OH VALLEY/NERN U.S. THE ECMWF IS
CONSIDERABLY DEEPER/FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE AND POTENTIALLY MORE
SIGNIFICANT REGARDING THE POSSIBILITY FOR ROBUST DEEP CONVECTION.
THIS FASTER SOLUTION MAY BE PARTLY DUE TO STRONGER FLOW DIGGING INTO
THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES THAN THE GFS WHICH WILL
ENCOURAGE A QUICKER EJECTING TROUGH INTO NEW ENGLAND.
ADDITIONALLY...LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY MAY PROVE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL
THUS THE PREDICTABILITY FOR SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT AN OUTLOOK THIS PERIOD.
..DARROW.. 09/30/2012
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment