DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 040858
SWOD48
SPC AC 040857

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 AM CDT TUE SEP 04 2012

VALID 071200Z - 121200Z

...DISCUSSION...
GFS AND ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT ATTM THROUGH DAY 5 /SAT
9-8/...BRINGING A DIGGING/POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
SEWD ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY REGION AND PLAINS STATES DAY 4 /FRI
9-8/...AND THEN INTO THE MID-SOUTH REGION DAY 5 WHERE IT SLOWS AND
DEEPENS INTO A CLOSED LOW.

AFTER DAY 5...MODELS BEGIN DIFFERING AS THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN THE LOW -- SHIFTING IT SLOWLY NEWD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE THE GFS
DEPICTS A WEAKENING/OPENING FEATURE THAT EVENTUALLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE
INTO THE ATLANTIC.

SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE DIGGING TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED/SEWD-MOVING COLD FRONT AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S. DAY 4. WITH AMPLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR AND MODERATE WNWLYS AT
MID LEVELS...THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED STRONGER/SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...COVERAGE/INTENSITY
ANTICIPATED DOES NOT ATTM WARRANT INTRODUCTION OF A THREAT AREA.

A MORE LIMITED THREAT MAY CONTINUE INTO DAY 5...AS THE SURFACE FRONT
SHIFTS QUICKLY SEWD ACROSS THE MID SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. BEYOND THIS
TIME...COMBINATION OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY AND WHAT APPEARS OVERALL TO
BE A PATTERN UNFAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS PRECLUDES
CONSIDERATION OF ANY AREAL HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 09/04/2012

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