MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1859

ACUS11 KWNS 020237
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020237
INZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-020300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1859
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0937 PM CDT SAT SEP 01 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KY AND SRN IND

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 603...

VALID 020237Z - 020300Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 603 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...AT LEAST A MODEST THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND A TORNADO MAY PERSIST AN HOUR OR SO BEYOND WW
EXPIRATION TIME OF 03Z. HOWEVER...OVERALL THREAT IS NOT AS ROBUST AS
EARLIER...AND ANOTHER WW IS NOT EXPECTED BEYOND THE EXPIRATION TIME
OF 03Z.

DISCUSSION...STORMS HAVE EVOLVED INTO A PREDOMINANT LINEAR MODE
ACROSS WRN KY...BUT A COUPLE OF DISCRETE CELLS REMAIN. A FEW
ORGANIZED STRUCTURES PERSIST WITHIN THE LINE...AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR
REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR A THREAT OF LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES. OVERALL
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS NOT AS ROBUST AS EARLIER THIS EVENING...AND A
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS STORMS ENCOUNTER AN
INCREASINGLY MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.

..DIAL.. 09/02/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...

LAT...LON 36658797 37448795 38298765 38368704 36848717 36658797

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