MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1860

ACUS11 KWNS 020259
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020259
TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-020430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1860
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0959 PM CDT SAT SEP 01 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AR...THROUGH NRN MO AND WRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 606...607...

VALID 020259Z - 020430Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
606...607...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING GUSTS WILL
PERSIST NEXT COUPLE HOURS FROM SRN AR INTO NRN MS AND SERN PORTIONS
OF WRN TN. HOWEVER...OVERALL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A
GRADUAL DECREASE.

DISCUSSION...LINE OF STORMS WITH A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS PERSISTS FROM
WRN TN SWWD THROUGH NRN MS AND SRN AR. STORMS IN SRN AR ARE
DEVELOPING NORTH OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE A MID LEVEL
JET ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH HAS CONTRIBUTED TO
SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES TO PERSIST.
OTHERWISE...STORMS FROM NRN MS INTO WRN TN WILL CONTINUE TO FORWARD
PROPAGATE ALONG CONSOLIDATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND POSE A THREAT FOR
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AN OVERALL SLOW WEAKENING TREND AS THEY ENCOUNTER AN
INCREASINGLY MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.

..DIAL.. 09/02/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON 34419287 34029123 34808943 36078815 35538801 34348876
33449135 33559300 34279330 34419287

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