MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1886

ACUS11 KWNS 050252
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050251
IAZ000-MNZ000-050345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1886
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0951 PM CDT TUE SEP 04 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IA THROUGH SRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 615...

VALID 050251Z - 050345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 615
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...STORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NRN IA AND SRN MN WITH
A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND NEXT FEW HOURS. STORMS WILL
APPROACH THE ERN BOUNDARY OF WW 615 BY 330Z...AND IF INTENSITIES ARE
MAINTAINED A NEW WW WILL PROBABLY BE REQUIRED.

DISCUSSION...STORMS HAVE EVOLVED INTO A LINE THAT IS MOVING EWD AT
30-35 KT. THE ACTIVITY IS EMBEDDED WITH 40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND
ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THAT THE STABILIZING SFC LAYER MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A SLOW
DECREASE IN OVERALL STORM INTENSITIES. HOWEVER...SELY BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS AND SLY LLJ WILL MAINTAIN INFLOW FROM UNSTABLE WARM
SECTOR...AND STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO FORWARD PROPAGATE ALONG
INSTABILITY GRADIENT NEXT FEW HOURS. PRIMARY THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND...BUT HAIL ALSO REMAINS POSSIBLE.

..DIAL.. 09/05/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...

LAT...LON 42349542 43259537 44009541 44129377 43559320 42349328
42349542

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