MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1912

ACUS11 KWNS 071817
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071816
PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-071915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1912
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0116 PM CDT FRI SEP 07 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OH...NWRN PA...SWRN NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 628...

VALID 071816Z - 071915Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 628
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...DAMAGING WIND THREAT CONTINUES WITH A SHORT LINE OF STRONG
TO LOCALLY SEVERE TSTMS FROM NWRN OH TO E-CNTRL IND. TSTMS
DEVELOPING E/NEWD AHEAD OF THIS LINE INTO SWRN NY MAY INTENSIFY TO
MARGINAL SEVERE LEVELS...BREEDING UNCERTAINTY OVER THE
NECESSITY/TIMING OF A DOWNSTREAM WW.

DISCUSSION...DAMAGING WIND THREAT SHOULD PERSIST WITHIN PRIMARILY
ERN PORTIONS OF WW 628. HOWEVER...DOWNSTREAM TSTM CELLS HAVE FORMED
ALONG A LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE AXIS TO THE E/NE...S OF LK ERIE. THIS
ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY STRUGGLED TO INTENSIFY THUS FAR...PERHAPS OWING
TO WEAKER ASCENT WITHIN THIS REGION. STILL...A MODERATELY FAVORABLE
COMBINATION OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND BUOYANCY /PER PARTIAL 18Z ILN
RAOB/ MAY YIELD A FEW INTENSE UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL/WIND. A GREATER ORGANIZED THREAT MAY EVOLVE IF THESE CELLS CAN
MERGE AND CONGLOMERATE WITH THE NWRN OH/E-CNTRL IND LINE.

..GRAMS.. 09/07/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...

LAT...LON 41118404 41398185 42457932 42647876 42627853 42427837
41617880 40598022 40148214 39778371 39518475 39398527
39498566 39848573 40018550 41118404

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