MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1914

ACUS11 KWNS 071939
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071939
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-072045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1914
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0239 PM CDT FRI SEP 07 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 628...

VALID 071939Z - 072045Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 628
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SWRN PORTION OF QLCS HAS SLOWED ITS EWD PROGRESSION ALONG
THE IND/OH BORDER...RELATIVE TO THE NRN PORTION OF THE LINE. IF THIS
TREND CONTINUES...THIS PORTION OF THE LINE MAY TAKE ON A MORE
W/E-ORIENTATION AND LARGELY REMAIN WITHIN THE ILN CWA. A LOCAL WW
AREAL EXTENSION MAY BE THE MORE PRUDENT COURSE OF ACTION FOR
HANDLING THE DOWNSTREAM THREAT.

DISCUSSION...WITH OUTFLOW BECOMING MORE ELONGATED OVER TIME AND
MID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASING WITH NRN EXTENT...THE ORIENTATION OF THE
LONG-LIVED QLCS HAS CHANGED TO A SW/NE-ORIENTATION. THE SWRN PORTION
OF THE LINE INTERCEPTS THE THERMAL/MOIST AXIS WITH THE MODIFIED 18Z
ILN RAOB SUGGESTIVE OF MLCAPE FROM 2000-2500 J/KG. WITH DEEPER CU
EVIDENT AHEAD OF THE LINE N OF THE OH RIVER...IT APPEARS PROBABLE
THAT THE SWRN EXTENT OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE OH PORTION OF THE ILN CWA THROUGH 22Z.

..GRAMS.. 09/07/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...ILN...

LAT...LON 40378345 40178231 40038210 39508218 39248258 39018342
38908424 38998489 39128514 39528509 39898455 40378345

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