MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1934

ACUS11 KWNS 081847
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081846
VTZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-081945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1934
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0146 PM CDT SAT SEP 08 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY...VT

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 637...

VALID 081846Z - 081945Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 637 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY
INCREASE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS COLD FRONT IS ABOUT TO MERGE WITH
PRE-FRONTAL QLCS IN CNTRL NY. THIS THREAT SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS
THE HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS AROUND 21Z.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTY
NY TO COLUMBIA COUNTY PA AS OF 1835Z. THIS IS JUST ABOUT TO OVERTAKE
THE PRE-FRONTAL QLCS. AS THIS PROCESS ENSUES AND WITH DOWNSTREAM
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...THE LINE SHOULD
INTENSIFY ACROSS ERN NY/NERN PA. WITH MODIFIED 18Z ALB RAOB SAMPLING
MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG AMIDST EFFECTIVE SRH AROUND 200 M2/S2...THIS
SETUP WILL FAVOR EMBEDDED BOWING/LEWP STRUCTURES PRODUCING
POTENTIALLY NUMEROUS AND SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE ALONG WITH BRIEF
TORNADOES.

..GRAMS.. 09/08/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...

LAT...LON 44097451 44727399 44937307 44757238 44307229 43387259
42007335 41537378 41377422 41477483 41617519 41827543
44097451

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