MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1943

ACUS11 KWNS 101947
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101946
UTZ000-NVZ000-102145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1943
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0246 PM CDT MON SEP 10 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL NV INTO W-CNTRL UT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 101946Z - 102145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR SVR WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST INTO
EARLY EVENING...AND WW ISSUANCE IS NOT NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH TERRAIN-DRIVEN CIRCULATIONS APPEAR TO BE
RESPONDING TO MODESTLY ENHANCED HIGH-LEVEL WLYS AS VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES SUGGEST DOWN-SHEAR TILT OF STORM STRUCTURES. GIVEN THIS
FLOW...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 20 TO 30 KT...STRONGEST
NORTH...COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT STORMS. SVR WIND
GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON AN ISOLATED BASIS OWING TO
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS AOA 30F AMIDST GENERALLY 500-1200 J/KG
OF MLCAPE. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY MORE MEAGER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
COMPARED TO LOCATIONS FARTHER SOUTH SHOULD LIMIT BUOYANCY AND THE
OVERALL SVR THREAT. FURTHERMORE...DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...AND ANY INSTANCES OF SVR STORMS
SHOULD BE SPORADIC.

..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 09/10/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SLC...VEF...LKN...

LAT...LON 38191594 38351669 38721711 39021723 39281717 39491695
39801632 40201554 40461484 40711396 40851325 40751258
40511208 40081196 39641227 39241288 38661413 38381488
38191594

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