Monday, September 17, 2012

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1954

ACUS11 KWNS 180222
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180221
SCZ000-GAZ000-NCZ000-180345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1954
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0921 PM CDT MON SEP 17 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN GA...FAR NWRN SC

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 640...

VALID 180221Z - 180345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 640 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...LOW-END/MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT EXISTS PRIMARILY WITHIN
ERN PORTIONS OF WW 640.

DISCUSSION...A FEW CELLS AROUND 40 MILES NE OF MCN WOULD APPEAR TO
HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY TO INTENSIFY...PROGRESSING THROUGH THE
SURFACE THERMAL AXIS CHARACTERIZED BY 02Z TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
70S. MODIFIED 00Z FFC RAOB SUGGESTS THE GREATEST BUOYANCY WOULD
EXIST HERE WITH MLCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG. GIVEN 0-1 KM SHEAR HAVING
INCREASED TO BETWEEN 25-30 KT PER AREA VWP DATA...ANY ONE OF THESE
CELLS COULD DEVELOP LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AS THEY EVOLVE N/NEWD
TOWARD NWRN SC.

..GRAMS.. 09/18/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC...

LAT...LON 34968246 34258225 33368238 32868258 32718291 32818337
33558378 34588375 34928347 35058310 34968246

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