Tuesday, October 9, 2012

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 091928
SWODY1
SPC AC 091926

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 PM CDT TUE OCT 09 2012

VALID 092000Z - 101200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

A MINOR SWD ADJUSTMENT HAS BEEN MADE TO THE TSTM PROBABILITY LINE
OVER THE FL PENINSULA TO ACCOUNT FOR DEEPENING NLY FLOW. WITH
STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING ONGOING OVER CNTRL/SRN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING...A FEW MAY DEEPEN ENOUGH FOR
LIGHTNING.

..DARROW.. 10/09/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1103 AM CDT TUE OCT 09 2012/

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN E OF THE ROCKIES TODAY AS A
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT
LOCATED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC EXTENDS SSWWD INTO THE ERN GULF OF
MEXICO. S OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE FL PENINSULA...A MOISTURE RICH
AIR MASS /CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS/ WILL SUPPORT A FEW
ISOLD TO WIDELY SCTD DAYTIME TSTMS. THE SEVERE RISK WITH THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE MINIMAL GIVEN WEAK LOWER HALF TROPOSPHERIC
SHEAR AND MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

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