DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 250423
SWODY1
SPC AC 250421

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1121 PM CDT WED OCT 24 2012

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IN BROADER WRN/CNTRL U.S LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT E/NE TODAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TOWARD HUDSON BAY. AT THE SFC...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FROM NRN WI TO NW MO WILL DEEPEN AND LIFT N ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY EARLY EVENING. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
EXTENDING S/SW FROM THE LOW ACROSS WRN WI INTO THE SRN PLAINS WILL
SHIFT E/SE THROUGH THE PERIOD...EVENTUALLY EXTENDING FROM OH INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND S TX BY 12Z/FRI.

...UPPER GREAT LAKES/MID MS VALLEY...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST FROM WRN WI INTO ERN IA/NRN MO. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT TRACKS EWD...ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE FRONT IN A
NARROW WARM/MOIST SECTOR FROM CNTRL/ERN WI INTO NRN IL AND NE MO.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH REGARDS TO DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THIS AREA
WITH CLOUD COVER LIMITING HEATING. ADDITIONALLY...SOME FORECAST
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WEAK WARM LAYER BETWEEN 850-700 MB WHILE
OTHERS ERODE THIS WARM LAYER...LEADING TO FURTHER UNCERTAINTY IN
POSSIBLE STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY. FAST DEEP LAYER SWLY FLOW AND
WEAK INSTABILITY MAY LEAD TO A FEW LOOSELY ORGANIZED...LOW-TOPPED
AND FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST CONVECTION.

FURTHER SOUTH INTO PARTS OF THE MID-MS VALLEY AND
OZARKS...DESTABILIZATION MAY BE GREATER BUT STORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE LESS FURTHER REMOVED FROM STRONGER FORCING TO THE
NORTH.

...SE FL...

THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF HURRICANE SANDY PER NHC AND MODEL
GUIDANCE WILL LIMIT TORNADO THREAT AS THE CENTER OF THE STORM /AND
BETTER KINEMATICS AND THERMODYNAMICS/ PASSES WELL EAST OF THE ERN FL
COAST. HOWEVER...STRONG/GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ACCOMPANY
ANY THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ONSHORE.

..LEITMAN/KERR.. 10/25/2012

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