DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 031933
SWODY1
SPC AC 031931

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 PM CDT WED OCT 03 2012

VALID 032000Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

REMOVED THUNDER PROBABILITIES IN PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST WHERE THE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE IS HOSTILE TO LIGHTNING PRODUCTION. ALSO ADDED
A SMALL THUNDER AREA TO ERN ND/NWRN MN WHERE SPORADIC LIGHTNING
STRIKES MAY PERSIST DOWNSTREAM OF A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
OTHERWISE...MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE ELSEWHERE.

..GRAMS.. 10/03/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 AM CDT WED OCT 03 2012/

...SYNOPSIS...
THE NEARLY STATIONARY TROUGH OVER THE MS VALLEY THE LAST FEW DAYS
WILL FINALLY LIFT NE TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES
THROUGH 12Z THU. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD/SRN NEW ENGLAND IN MOIST SLY
FLOW AHEAD OF ADVANCING TROUGH. THE PROGRESSION OF THE SOUTHERN
TROUGH IS DUE TO SEWD ADVANCING NRN STREAM TROUGH EVIDENT LATE THIS
MORNING IN WV IMAGERY ACROSS CNTRL MT. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK EWD
AND STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. ASSOCIATED SFC
LOW NEAR SW SD/NW NEB THIS MORNING WILL TRACK NEWD INTO MN
OVERNIGHT...WHILE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PUSHES E/SE ACROSS THE CNTRL
PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN WEAK
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM EXTREME ERN CO INTO WRN IA.

...SRN LA...SRN/CNTRL MS...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN
MOIST...WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE TO THE
LOW/MID 60S F ON SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT
/APPROX. -15 C AT 500 MB/ WILL RESULT IN MODEST LAPSE RATES WITH
SBCAPE APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG. THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER FORCING
AND GENERALLY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIMIT ORGANIZATION/COVERAGE
OF STORMS. HOWEVER THE STRONGER CELLS THIS AFTERNOON MAY PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL.

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